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Pt.investitori Forex experimentati
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Keep up to date with the most important events and economic indicators that drive the Forex Market.
Use the Date Range button below in order to go back to previous weeks.
Events may also be brought into focus by filtering their origin and level of importance.
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Today: 25 May 2013
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Rezultatele saptamanii: 19/05/2013 - 25/05/2013
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| 20/05/2013 | 12:30 | | | Indicele Activitatii Nationale Chicago FED (IANCF) - nivel | -0.53 | | -0.23 | Apr |  |
Country: US - Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Definition
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index designed to better gauge overall economic activity and inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is released at 8:30 a.m. E.T. on scheduled days, normally toward the end of each calendar month. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The 85 economic indicators that are included in the CFNAI are drawn from four broad categories of data: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. The derived index provides a single, summary measure of a factor common to these national economic data.
Why Investors Care?
This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation. This index combines 85 diverse and already released indicators from four broad categories employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories into an overall index to measure economic performance. The index provides another measure with which investors can measure overall growth.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 21/05/2013 | | | | BoJ Rata Dobanzii de Referinta - schimbare | 0bp | 0bp | 0bp | May | |
Country: Japan - Bank of Japan Announcement
Definition
The central bank of Japan makes it monetary policy decision at the end of its meetings. There is no specific time for the announcement.
Why Investors Care?
The Bank of Japan Policy Board meets once a month for two days to discuss economic developments inside and outside of the country. The culmination of the meeting is the announcement of any adjustments to interest rates or other aspects of monetary policy. Like other central banks, the BoJ's goal is to ensure price stability while taking into account economic growth, employment and recommendations from the elected government while maintaining its independence. Unlike other central banks, the BoJ does not have an inflation target and has been engaged in fighting deflation. And while prices have risen thanks to soaring energy prices, these increases look fragile going forward.
The Bank announces its conclusions in a statement issued at the close of the monetary policy board meeting. The meetings are generally followed by a press conference by the Bank's governor. Needless to say, his comments are parsed carefully by the financial markets. In addition, the BoJ publishes minutes of the meeting about a month or so after the meeting but give detailed insight into the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision making process. Every month the Bank releases a report covering trends in the Japanese economy and relevant international developments. The report summarizes recent economic indicators and gives the Bank's official position on Japanese economic growth. Because the BOJ sets monetary policy, any insight into the conclusions and assumptions the Bank is operating under can be helpful in predicting future interest rate actions.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 21/05/2013 | | | | BoJ Rata Dobanzii de Referinta - nivel | 0-0.1% | 0-0.1% | 0-0.1% | May | |
Country: Japan - Bank of Japan Announcement
Definition
The central bank of Japan makes it monetary policy decision at the end of its meetings. There is no specific time for the announcement.
Why Investors Care?
The Bank of Japan Policy Board meets once a month for two days to discuss economic developments inside and outside of the country. The culmination of the meeting is the announcement of any adjustments to interest rates or other aspects of monetary policy. Like other central banks, the BoJ's goal is to ensure price stability while taking into account economic growth, employment and recommendations from the elected government while maintaining its independence. Unlike other central banks, the BoJ does not have an inflation target and has been engaged in fighting deflation. And while prices have risen thanks to soaring energy prices, these increases look fragile going forward.
The Bank announces its conclusions in a statement issued at the close of the monetary policy board meeting. The meetings are generally followed by a press conference by the Bank's governor. Needless to say, his comments are parsed carefully by the financial markets. In addition, the BoJ publishes minutes of the meeting about a month or so after the meeting but give detailed insight into the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision making process. Every month the Bank releases a report covering trends in the Japanese economy and relevant international developments. The report summarizes recent economic indicators and gives the Bank's official position on Japanese economic growth. Because the BOJ sets monetary policy, any insight into the conclusions and assumptions the Bank is operating under can be helpful in predicting future interest rate actions.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 21/05/2013 | 00:00 | | | Indicatori Principali – l/l | 0.1% | | 0.3% | | |
Country: Australia - Leading Indicators
Definition
A composite index of ten economic indicators that should lead overall economic activity. This indicator was initially compiled by the Commerce Department but is now compiled and produced by The Conference Board. It has been revised many times in the past 30 years - particularly when it has not done a good job of predicting turning points.
Why Investors Care?
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the index of leading indicators, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly-and causing potential inflationary pressures. The index of leading indicators is designed to predict turning points in the economy -- such as recessions and recoveries. More specifically, it was designed to lead the index of coincident indicators, also now published by The Conference Board. Investors like to see composite indexes because they tell an easy story, although they are not always as useful as they promise. The majority of the components of the leading indicators have been reported earlier in the month so that the composite index doesn't necessarily reveal new information about the economy. Bond investors tend to be less interested in this index than equity investors. Also, the non-financial media tends to give this index more press than it deserves.
Frequency
Monthly
Source
The Conference Board.
Availability
Third week of the month.
Coverage
Data are for the previous month. Data for June are released in July.
Revisions
Yes. |
| 21/05/2013 | 01:30 | | | Protocolul ultimei decizii a dobanzii de referinta | | | | | |
| Country: Australia |
| 21/05/2013 | 04:30 | | | Indicele Activitatii Industriale – l/l | -0.3% | | 0.6% | Mar | |
Country: Japan - All Industry Index
Definition
The all industry index takes a reading of activity in the tertiary index combined with activity in the construction, agricultural and fisheries industries, the public sector and industrial output. This index is considered a close approximation for gross domestic product growth as measured by industrial and service sector output. *Release time listed is for U.S. Eastern Time of the previous day.
Why Investors Care?
The all industry index evaluates the monthly change in overall production by all sectors of the Japanese economy. The index includes the tertiary index which is released a few days before the all industry plus the construction, agricultural and fisheries industries, the public sector and industrial output. The index closely follows Japanese GDP and overall growth figures, providing insight into current levels of Japanese economic expansion.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 21/05/2013 | 04:30 | | | Indicele Activitatii Industriale – a/a | -0.5% | | -0.5% | Mar | |
Country: Japan - All Industry Index
Definition
The all industry index takes a reading of activity in the tertiary index combined with activity in the construction, agricultural and fisheries industries, the public sector and industrial output. This index is considered a close approximation for gross domestic product growth as measured by industrial and service sector output. *Release time listed is for U.S. Eastern Time of the previous day.
Why Investors Care?
The all industry index evaluates the monthly change in overall production by all sectors of the Japanese economy. The index includes the tertiary index which is released a few days before the all industry plus the construction, agricultural and fisheries industries, the public sector and industrial output. The index closely follows Japanese GDP and overall growth figures, providing insight into current levels of Japanese economic expansion.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 21/05/2013 | 06:00 | | | Indicele Pretului la Producator (IPP) – l/l | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | Apr | |
Country: Germany - PPI
Definition
The producer price index (PPI) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods paid by producers.
Why Investors Care?
The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI).
Because the index of producer prices measures price changes at an early stage in the economic process, it can serve as an indicator of future inflation trends. The producer price index and its sub-indexes are often used in business contracts for the adjustment of recurring payments. They also are used to deflate other values of economic statistics like the production index. It should be noted that the PPI excludes construction. These price statistics cover both the sales of industrial products to domestic buyers at different stages in the economic process and the sales between industrial enterprises.
The PPI provides a key measure of inflation alongside the consumer price indexes and GDP deflators. The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.
The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 21/05/2013 | 06:00 | | | Indicele Pretului la Producator (IPP) – a/a | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | Apr | |
Country: Germany - PPI
Definition
The producer price index (PPI) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods paid by producers.
Why Investors Care?
The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI).
Because the index of producer prices measures price changes at an early stage in the economic process, it can serve as an indicator of future inflation trends. The producer price index and its sub-indexes are often used in business contracts for the adjustment of recurring payments. They also are used to deflate other values of economic statistics like the production index. It should be noted that the PPI excludes construction. These price statistics cover both the sales of industrial products to domestic buyers at different stages in the economic process and the sales between industrial enterprises.
The PPI provides a key measure of inflation alongside the consumer price indexes and GDP deflators. The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.
The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 21/05/2013 | 08:30 | | | Indicele Pretului la Producator la Iesire (IPP) – l/l | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | Apr | |
Country: UK - Producer Price Index
Definition
The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. The two major components are input prices - that is those paid by producers for things like raw materials - and output or factory gate prices. Output prices measure the prices producers are able to charge for the goods they produce.
Why Investors Care?
The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, investors can anticipate inflationary consequences in coming months. A producer's price is the amount received by a producer from the purchaser of a unit of goods or services produced as output less any value added tax (VAT) or similar deductible tax, invoiced to the purchaser. It excludes any transportation charges invoiced separately by the producer.
The PPI provides a key measure of inflation alongside the consumer price indexes and GDP deflators. The output price indexes measure change in manufacturer' goods prices produced and often are referred to as factory gate prices. Input prices are not limited to just those materials used in the final product, but also include what is required by the company in its normal day-to-day operations.
The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.
The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 21/05/2013 | 08:30 | | | Indicele Pretului la Producator la Iesire (IPP) – a/a | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | Apr | |
Country: UK - Producer Price Index
Definition
The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. The two major components are input prices - that is those paid by producers for things like raw materials - and output or factory gate prices. Output prices measure the prices producers are able to charge for the goods they produce.
Why Investors Care?
The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, investors can anticipate inflationary consequences in coming months. A producer's price is the amount received by a producer from the purchaser of a unit of goods or services produced as output less any value added tax (VAT) or similar deductible tax, invoiced to the purchaser. It excludes any transportation charges invoiced separately by the producer.
The PPI provides a key measure of inflation alongside the consumer price indexes and GDP deflators. The output price indexes measure change in manufacturer' goods prices produced and often are referred to as factory gate prices. Input prices are not limited to just those materials used in the final product, but also include what is required by the company in its normal day-to-day operations.
The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.
The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 21/05/2013 | 08:30 | | | Indicele Pretului la Producator la Intrare (IPP) – l/l | -2.3% | -1.5% | -0.1% | Apr | |
Country: UK - Producer Price Index
Definition
The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. The two major components are input prices - that is those paid by producers for things like raw materials - and output or factory gate prices. Output prices measure the prices producers are able to charge for the goods they produce.
Why Investors Care?
The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, investors can anticipate inflationary consequences in coming months. A producer's price is the amount received by a producer from the purchaser of a unit of goods or services produced as output less any value added tax (VAT) or similar deductible tax, invoiced to the purchaser. It excludes any transportation charges invoiced separately by the producer.
The PPI provides a key measure of inflation alongside the consumer price indexes and GDP deflators. The output price indexes measure change in manufacturer' goods prices produced and often are referred to as factory gate prices. Input prices are not limited to just those materials used in the final product, but also include what is required by the company in its normal day-to-day operations.
The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.
The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 21/05/2013 | 08:30 | | | Indicele Pretului la Producator la Intrare (IPP) – a/a | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | Apr | |
Country: UK - Producer Price Index
Definition
The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. The two major components are input prices - that is those paid by producers for things like raw materials - and output or factory gate prices. Output prices measure the prices producers are able to charge for the goods they produce.
Why Investors Care?
The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, investors can anticipate inflationary consequences in coming months. A producer's price is the amount received by a producer from the purchaser of a unit of goods or services produced as output less any value added tax (VAT) or similar deductible tax, invoiced to the purchaser. It excludes any transportation charges invoiced separately by the producer.
The PPI provides a key measure of inflation alongside the consumer price indexes and GDP deflators. The output price indexes measure change in manufacturer' goods prices produced and often are referred to as factory gate prices. Input prices are not limited to just those materials used in the final product, but also include what is required by the company in its normal day-to-day operations.
The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.
The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 21/05/2013 | 08:30 | | | Indicele Pretului la Consumator (IPC) – l/l | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | Apr | |
Country: UK - CPI
Definition
The consumer price index is defined as an average measure of change in the prices of goods and services bought for the purpose of consumption by the vast majority of households in the UK. It is calculated using HICP methodology developed by Eurostat, the European Union's statistical agency. The CPI is the Bank of England's inflation measure.
Why Investors Care?
The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as the UK, where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments.
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
For monetary policy, the Bank of England generally follows the annual change in the consumer price index which is calculated using the European Union's Eurostat methodology so that inflation can be compared across EU member states.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 21/05/2013 | 08:30 | | | Indicele Pretului la Consumator (IPC) – a/a | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | Apr | |
Country: UK - CPI
Definition
The consumer price index is defined as an average measure of change in the prices of goods and services bought for the purpose of consumption by the vast majority of households in the UK. It is calculated using HICP methodology developed by Eurostat, the European Union's statistical agency. The CPI is the Bank of England's inflation measure.
Why Investors Care?
The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as the UK, where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments.
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
For monetary policy, the Bank of England generally follows the annual change in the consumer price index which is calculated using the European Union's Eurostat methodology so that inflation can be compared across EU member states.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 21/05/2013 | 11:45 | | | ICSC-Goldman Vanzarile Magazinelor - s/s | 0.2% | | -2.0% | Saptamana | |
Country: US - ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
Definition
This weekly measure of comparable store sales at major retail chains, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers, is related to the general merchandise portion of retail sales. It accounts for roughly 10 percent of total retail sales.
Why Investors Care?
Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Spending at major retail chains did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and during the 2001 recession. Sales weakened again in 2008 and 2009 due to the credit crunch and recession.
The ICSC-Goldman index is one of the more timely indicators of consumer spending, since it is reported every week. It gets extra attention around the holiday season when retailers make most of their profits. It is also a useful indicator when special factors can cause economic activity to momentarily slide. For instance, it was widely watched in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita which hit New Orleans and the Gulf Coast in 2005. The ICSC-Goldman Sachs store sales series previously was known as ICSC-UBS before Goldman Sach's involvement with ICSC. The name change took place with the September 30, 2008 release.
Frequency
Weekly
Source
International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs
Availability
Tuesdays
Coverage
Week-ending Saturday before the release.
Revisions
No
Frequency
Weekly |
| 21/05/2013 | 11:45 | | | ICSC-Goldman Vanzarile Magazinelor – a/a | 3.1% | | 1.2% | Saptamana | |
Country: US - ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
Definition
This weekly measure of comparable store sales at major retail chains, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers, is related to the general merchandise portion of retail sales. It accounts for roughly 10 percent of total retail sales.
Why Investors Care?
Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Spending at major retail chains did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and during the 2001 recession. Sales weakened again in 2008 and 2009 due to the credit crunch and recession.
The ICSC-Goldman index is one of the more timely indicators of consumer spending, since it is reported every week. It gets extra attention around the holiday season when retailers make most of their profits. It is also a useful indicator when special factors can cause economic activity to momentarily slide. For instance, it was widely watched in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita which hit New Orleans and the Gulf Coast in 2005. The ICSC-Goldman Sachs store sales series previously was known as ICSC-UBS before Goldman Sach's involvement with ICSC. The name change took place with the September 30, 2008 release.
Frequency
Weekly
Source
International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs
Availability
Tuesdays
Coverage
Week-ending Saturday before the release.
Revisions
No
Frequency
Weekly |
| 21/05/2013 | 12:55 | | | Redbook Vanzarile Magazinelor – a/a | 2.4% | | 2.8% | Saptamana | |
Country: US - Redbook
Definition
A weekly measure of sales at chain stores, discounters, and department stores. It is a less consistent indicator of retail sales than the weekly ICSC index. It is also calculated differently than other indicators. For instance, figures for the first week of the month are compared with the average for the entire previous month. When two weeks are available, then these are compared with the average for the previous month, and so on. It might be more useful to compare year-over-year figures since these are indeed compared to the comparable week a year ago. This index is correlated with the general merchandise portion of retail sales covering only about 10 percent of total retail sales.
Why Investors Care?
Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Spending at major retail chains did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and during the 2001 recession. Sales weakened again in 2008 due to the credit crunch and recession.
The Redbook is one of the more timely indicators of consumer spending, since it is reported every week. It gets extra attention around the holiday season when retailers make most of their profits. It is also a useful indicator when special factors can cause economic activity to momentarily slide. For instance, it was widely watched in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita which hit New Orleans and the Gulf Coast in 2005.
Source
Redbook Research, Inc.
Availability
Tuesdays.
Coverage
Week-ending Saturday before the release.
Revisions
Yes.
Frequency
Weekly |
| 21/05/2013 | 23:50 | | | Comertul Marfurilor – nivel | -879.9B | Y-621.1B | Y-362.4B | Apr | |
Country: Japan - Merchandise Trade
Definition
Merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade. *Release time listed is for U.S. Eastern Time of the previous day.
Why Investors Care?
Japan's merchandise trade balance measures visible trade and excludes services. Specifically it is the difference between imports of goods and exports of goods. A positive value indicates a trade surplus (exports exceed imports) while a negative value indicates a trade deficit (imports exceed exports). Movements in the trade balance reflect altered demand for Japanese exports which subsequently impact the yen's value and directly affect GDP growth because of the economy's dependence on trade.
The report gives insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for Japan, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses and any change can have dramatic affect on the domestic economy. Typically the headline number is the change from the previous year in yen along with the percentage change in exports and in imports from the previous year.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 21/05/2013 | 23:50 | | | Exporturile – a/a | 3.8% | 5.9% | 1.1% | Apr | |
Country: Japan - Merchandise Trade
Definition
Merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade. *Release time listed is for U.S. Eastern Time of the previous day.
Why Investors Care?
Japan's merchandise trade balance measures visible trade and excludes services. Specifically it is the difference between imports of goods and exports of goods. A positive value indicates a trade surplus (exports exceed imports) while a negative value indicates a trade deficit (imports exceed exports). Movements in the trade balance reflect altered demand for Japanese exports which subsequently impact the yen's value and directly affect GDP growth because of the economy's dependence on trade.
The report gives insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for Japan, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses and any change can have dramatic affect on the domestic economy. Typically the headline number is the change from the previous year in yen along with the percentage change in exports and in imports from the previous year.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 21/05/2013 | 23:50 | | | Importurile – a/a | 9.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | Apr | |
Country: Japan - Merchandise Trade
Definition
Merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade. *Release time listed is for U.S. Eastern Time of the previous day.
Why Investors Care?
Japan's merchandise trade balance measures visible trade and excludes services. Specifically it is the difference between imports of goods and exports of goods. A positive value indicates a trade surplus (exports exceed imports) while a negative value indicates a trade deficit (imports exceed exports). Movements in the trade balance reflect altered demand for Japanese exports which subsequently impact the yen's value and directly affect GDP growth because of the economy's dependence on trade.
The report gives insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for Japan, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses and any change can have dramatic affect on the domestic economy. Typically the headline number is the change from the previous year in yen along with the percentage change in exports and in imports from the previous year.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 22/05/2013 | 00:30 | | | Increderea Consumatorilor | -7.0% | | -5.10% | | |
Country: Australia
Source: The Conference Board.
Raw Data Available At: http://www.tcb-indicators.org/
Release Time: 10:00 ET on the last Tuesday of the month (data for current month).
This survey measures the level of confidence individual households have in the performance of the economy now and in the future. It is a leading indicator of future spending and the business cycle. 5000 consumers in the nine census divisions across the country are surveyed each month. The level of consumer confidence is directly correlated to the strength of consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy. It also correlates closely with joblessness, inflation, and real incomes. The report can occasionally be helpful in predicting sudden shifts in consumption patterns, though most small changes in the index are just noise. Only index changes of at least five points should be considered significant. The index consists of two subindexes - consumers' appraisal of current conditions and their expectations for the future. Expectations make up 60% of the total index, with current conditions accounting for the other 40%. The expectations index is typically seen as having better leading indicator qualities than the current conditions index. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. Note, changes in consumer confidence and retail sales do not move in tandem month by month. If the economy experiences a long-term expansion, buying intentions may decline even while the jobless rate declines because of the satisfaction of pent-up demand. Conversely, if inflation begins to accelerate, spending plans may increase for the short-term as consumers buy now to avoid having to pay higher prices later. Regional differences in consumer confidence are an indication of differing business cycles across the nation. This has implications for spending on durable goods and, more importantly, for residential real estate markets. Financial markets interpret rising consumer confidence as a precursor to higher consumer spending. Higher consumer spending could in turn spark inflation. Look for a change in the direction of the six month moving average of the index. Consumers do not usually have the necessary information to accurately assess income and job growth six months in the future. The report provides information on planned spending, which does not necessarily turn into actual spending, although it is unlikely that increasing consumer confidence would be followed by a decline in spending. The Consumer Confidence survey is not useful for any type of forecasting.
|
| 22/05/2013 | 03:10 | | | BoJ Rata Dobanzii de Referinta - schimbare | 0bp | 0bp | 0bp | May | |
Country: Japan - Bank of Japan Announcement
Definition
The central bank of Japan makes it monetary policy decision at the end of its meetings. There is no specific time for the announcement.
Why Investors Care?
The Bank of Japan Policy Board meets once a month for two days to discuss economic developments inside and outside of the country. The culmination of the meeting is the announcement of any adjustments to interest rates or other aspects of monetary policy. Like other central banks, the BoJ's goal is to ensure price stability while taking into account economic growth, employment and recommendations from the elected government while maintaining its independence. Unlike other central banks, the BoJ does not have an inflation target and has been engaged in fighting deflation. And while prices have risen thanks to soaring energy prices, these increases look fragile going forward.
The Bank announces its conclusions in a statement issued at the close of the monetary policy board meeting. The meetings are generally followed by a press conference by the Bank's governor. Needless to say, his comments are parsed carefully by the financial markets. In addition, the BoJ publishes minutes of the meeting about a month or so after the meeting but give detailed insight into the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision making process. Every month the Bank releases a report covering trends in the Japanese economy and relevant international developments. The report summarizes recent economic indicators and gives the Bank's official position on Japanese economic growth. Because the BOJ sets monetary policy, any insight into the conclusions and assumptions the Bank is operating under can be helpful in predicting future interest rate actions.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 22/05/2013 | 03:10 | | | BoJ Rata Dobanzii de Referinta - nivel | 0-0.1% | 0-0.1% | 0-0.1% | May | |
Country: Japan - Bank of Japan Announcement
Definition
The central bank of Japan makes it monetary policy decision at the end of its meetings. There is no specific time for the announcement.
Why Investors Care?
The Bank of Japan Policy Board meets once a month for two days to discuss economic developments inside and outside of the country. The culmination of the meeting is the announcement of any adjustments to interest rates or other aspects of monetary policy. Like other central banks, the BoJ's goal is to ensure price stability while taking into account economic growth, employment and recommendations from the elected government while maintaining its independence. Unlike other central banks, the BoJ does not have an inflation target and has been engaged in fighting deflation. And while prices have risen thanks to soaring energy prices, these increases look fragile going forward.
The Bank announces its conclusions in a statement issued at the close of the monetary policy board meeting. The meetings are generally followed by a press conference by the Bank's governor. Needless to say, his comments are parsed carefully by the financial markets. In addition, the BoJ publishes minutes of the meeting about a month or so after the meeting but give detailed insight into the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision making process. Every month the Bank releases a report covering trends in the Japanese economy and relevant international developments. The report summarizes recent economic indicators and gives the Bank's official position on Japanese economic growth. Because the BOJ sets monetary policy, any insight into the conclusions and assumptions the Bank is operating under can be helpful in predicting future interest rate actions.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 22/05/2013 | 08:00 | | | Contul Curent - nivel | 25.9B | 15.0B | 16.3B | | |
Country: EMU - Current Account
Definition
The current account measures the United States' international trade balance in goods, services, and unilateral transfers on a quarterly basis. The levels of exports, imports and the current account indicate trends in foreign trade.
Why Investors Care?
U.S. trade with foreign countries holds important clues to economic trends here and abroad. The data can directly impact all the financial markets, but especially the foreign exchange value of the dollar. The dollar can be particularly sensitive to changes in the chronic trade deficit run by the United States since this trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies.
The bond market is very sensitive to the risk of importing inflation or deflation. When Asian economies collapsed at the end of 1997, bond and equity investors feared that deflation in these economies would be transported to the United States. While goods inflation did decline modestly and momentarily, service inflation kept on ticking. Thus, the linkage is not so direct.
A chronic current account deficit also suggests that consumers and businesses in the United States are outspending their income. We are living on credit while foreigners are paying for our profligate ways.
Frequency
Quarterly
Source
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Department of Commerce
Availability
Mid-month
Coverage
Data are released the third month of the following quarter of the reference quarter. First quarter data are released in June.
Revisions
Yes |
| 22/05/2013 | 08:30 | | | Vanzarile pe domeniul de Retail – l/l | -1.3% | 0.0% | -0.7% | Apr | |
Country: UK - Retail Sales
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods.
Why Investors Care?
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. The monthly retail sales report contains sales data in both pounds sterling and volume. UK retail sales data exclude auto sales.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness but electronics sales are soaring. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 22/05/2013 | 08:30 | | | Vanzarile pe domeniul de Retail – a/a | 0.5% | 2.0% | -0.5% | Apr | |
Country: UK - Retail Sales
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods.
Why Investors Care?
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. The monthly retail sales report contains sales data in both pounds sterling and volume. UK retail sales data exclude auto sales.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness but electronics sales are soaring. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 22/05/2013 | 10:00 | | | CBI Sondajul Tendintelor din Domeniul Industrial - nivel | -20 | -17.0 | -25 | May | |
Country: UK - CBI Industrial Trends Survey
Definition
CBI conducts a survey of senior manufacturing executives on trends in output, prices, exports, and costs. The CBI Industrial Trends Survey collects data on topics like current business confidence, capacity utilization and investment intentions. The survey differs from most other economic surveys in that it focuses on the opinions of executives rather than quantitative data.
Why Investors Care?
The CBI is the UK's longest-running business survey with a 46-year reputation for timeliness and accuracy. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official Source
s. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 22/05/2013 | 11:00 | | | Indicele Compozit MBA – s/s | -9.8% | | -7.3% | Saptamana | |
Country: US - MBA Purchase Applications
Definition
The Mortgage Bankers' Association compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.
Why Investors Care?
This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as the Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.
Each time the construction of a new home begins, it translates to more construction jobs, and income which will be pumped back into the economy. Once a home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items new home buyers might purchase. The economic "ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month.
Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, housing construction has a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the MBA purchase applications index carries valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
Source
Mortgage Bankers Association.
Availability
Wednesdays.
Coverage
Week-ending Friday before the release.
Revisions
No.
Frequency
Weekly |
| 22/05/2013 | 11:00 | | | Indicele Achizitiilor MBA – s/s | -3.0% | | -4.0% | Saptamana | |
Country: US - MBA Purchase Applications
Definition
The Mortgage Bankers' Association compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.
Why Investors Care?
This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as the Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.
Each time the construction of a new home begins, it translates to more construction jobs, and income which will be pumped back into the economy. Once a home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items new home buyers might purchase. The economic "ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month.
Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, housing construction has a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the MBA purchase applications index carries valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
Source
Mortgage Bankers Association.
Availability
Wednesdays.
Coverage
Week-ending Friday before the release.
Revisions
No.
Frequency
Weekly |
| 22/05/2013 | 11:00 | | | Indicele Refinantarilor MBA – s/s | -12.0% | | -8.0% | Saptamana | |
Country: US - MBA Purchase Applications
Definition
The Mortgage Bankers' Association compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.
Why Investors Care?
This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as the Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.
Each time the construction of a new home begins, it translates to more construction jobs, and income which will be pumped back into the economy. Once a home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items new home buyers might purchase. The economic "ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month.
Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, housing construction has a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the MBA purchase applications index carries valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
Source
Mortgage Bankers Association.
Availability
Wednesdays.
Coverage
Week-ending Friday before the release.
Revisions
No.
Frequency
Weekly |
| 22/05/2013 | 12:30 | | | Vanzarile pe domeniul de Retail – l/l | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | Mar | |
Country: Canada - Retail Sales
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods.
Why Investors Care?
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Data are available both for total retail sales and those excluding autos and for 16 different store specializations. Since autos account for over 25 percent of retail sales, the sector can have a pronounced impact on overall sales given their volatility. Retail sales are used to estimate the goods portion of personal consumer expenditures in the quarterly GDP accounts, accounting for about 50 percent of the total.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness but electronics sales are soaring. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 22/05/2013 | 12:30 | | | Vanzarile pe domeniul de Retail – a/a | 1.1% | | 1.5% | Mar | |
Country: Canada - Retail Sales
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods.
Why Investors Care?
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Data are available both for total retail sales and those excluding autos and for 16 different store specializations. Since autos account for over 25 percent of retail sales, the sector can have a pronounced impact on overall sales given their volatility. Retail sales are used to estimate the goods portion of personal consumer expenditures in the quarterly GDP accounts, accounting for about 50 percent of the total.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness but electronics sales are soaring. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 22/05/2013 | 14:00 | | | Vanzarile de Case Existente -nivel | 4.97M | 5.00M | 4.920M | Apr | |
Country: US - Existing Home Sales
Definition
Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominium and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends. (National Association of Realtors)
Why Investors Care?
This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as home resales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.
Even though home resales don't always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer.
Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic "ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month.
Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home resales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
Frequency
Monthly.
Source
National Association of Realtors.
Availability
On or about the 25th of the month.
Coverage
Data are for the previous month. Data for June are released in July.
Revisions
Yes. |
| 22/05/2013 | 14:00 | | | Vanzarile de Case Existente – l/l | 0.6% | | -0.6% | Apr | |
Country: US - Existing Home Sales
Definition
Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominium and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends. (National Association of Realtors)
Why Investors Care?
This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as home resales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.
Even though home resales don't always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer.
Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic "ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month.
Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home resales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
Frequency
Monthly.
Source
National Association of Realtors.
Availability
On or about the 25th of the month.
Coverage
Data are for the previous month. Data for June are released in July.
Revisions
Yes. |
| 22/05/2013 | 14:00 | | | Vanzarile de Case Existente – a/a | 9.7% | | 10.3% | Apr | |
Country: US - Existing Home Sales
Definition
Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominium and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends. (National Association of Realtors)
Why Investors Care?
This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as home resales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.
Even though home resales don't always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer.
Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic "ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month.
Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home resales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
Frequency
Monthly.
Source
National Association of Realtors.
Availability
On or about the 25th of the month.
Coverage
Data are for the previous month. Data for June are released in July.
Revisions
Yes. |
| 22/05/2013 | 14:00 | | | Discurs al Presedintelui Rezervei Americane, Bernanke | | | | | |
| Country: US |
| 22/05/2013 | 14:30 | | | EIA Stocurile de Petrol Brut – s/s | -0.3M barrels | | -0.6M barrels | Saptamana | |
Country: US - EIA Petroleum Status Report
Definition
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.
Why Investors Care?
Petroleum product prices are determined by supply and demand - just like any other good and service. During periods of strong economic growth, one would expect demand to be robust. If inventories are low, this will lead to increases in crude oil prices - or price increases for a wide variety of petroleum products such as gasoline or heating oil. If inventories are high and rising in a period of strong demand, prices may not need to increase at all, or as much. During a period of sluggish economic activity, demand for crude oil may not be as strong. If inventories are rising, this may push down oil prices.
Crude oil is an important commodity in the global market. Prices fluctuate depending on supply and demand conditions in the world. Since oil is such an important part of the economy, it can also help determine the direction of inflation. In the U.S. consumer prices have moderated whenever oil prices have fallen, but have accelerated when oil prices have risen.
Source
Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy.
Availability
Wednesdays, except on federal holidays.
Coverage
Each weekly report has data for the week ending the previous Friday.
Revisions
No.
Frequency
Weekly |
| 22/05/2013 | 14:30 | | | Inventar Benzina EIA | 3.0M barrels | | 2.6M barrels | Saptamana | |
| Country: US |
| 22/05/2013 | 14:30 | | | Extras Inventar EIA | -1.1M barrels | | 2.3M barrels | Saptamana | |
| Country: US |
| 22/05/2013 | 18:00 | | | Protocolul ultimei decizii a dobanzii de referinta | | | | | |
| Country: US |
| 23/05/2013 | 01:45 | | | PMI in productie | 49.6 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | |
Country: China
Source: Institute for Supply Management.
Raw Data Available At: http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/index.cfm
Release Time: 10:00 ET on the first business day of the month for the prior month.
ISM: Institute for Supply Management
formerly NAPM: National Association of Purchasing Managers
In Brief
The ISM report is a national survey of purchasing managers which covers such indicators as new orders, production, employment, inventories, delivery times, prices, export orders, and import orders. Diffusion indexes are produced for each of these categories, with a reading over 50% indicating expansion relative to the prior month, and a sub-50% reading indicating contraction.
The total index is calculated based on a weighted average of the following five sub-indexes, with weights in parentheses: new orders (30%), production (25%), employment (20%), deliveries (15%), and inventories (10%).
The ISM is one of the first comprehensive economic releases of the month, typically preceding the employment report. Though it covers only the manufacturing sector, it can often provide accurate hints regarding the tone of subsequent releases. During periods of inflation concerns, the prices paid and vendor deliveries indexes often determine the bond market's reaction to the report.
In Depth
The Institute for Supply Management's monthly Report on Business is probably the most widely watched economic indicator produced by the private sector. There are two key reasons for the ISM's prominence. First, its longevity - the report was first produced in 1931, and after a break during World War II, it has produced continuously since 1948. Second , its leading quality - the ISM has been one of the better predictors of the business cycle over the years.
Who and What It Surveys
The ISM index is the result of a monthly survey of over 400 companies in 20 industries throughout the 50 states. The survey queries respondents on a number of monthly indicators, including orders, production, employment, inventories, delivery times, prices paid, export orders, and import orders. Respondents are asked to characterize each indicator as higher, lower, or unchanged for the month (or faster/slower in the case of delivery times). They are not asked for specific numbers - only a thumbs up or down.
Presenting the Numbers
Based on these responses, the ISM calculates diffusion indexes for each of the components. These diffusion indexes are calculated by adding half of the percentage of respondents answering "unchanged" to the percentage answering "higher" (or "slower" for deliveries). These diffusion indexes do not yield estimates of specific magnitudes of strength or weakness, but the more respondents who are indicating trends in the same direction - the better the chance that the magnitude of that move is larger.
A diffusion index of 50% is the theoretical breakeven mark - with readings above indicating strength and below indicating weakness. The ISM only provides the raw data - the Department of Commerce produces the seasonal factors which are used to provide more meaningful, seasonally adjusted indexes.
The total index is not the result of a separate question regarding general business conditions (as is the case with the Philadelphia Fed index). Instead, the index is calculated using the weighted sum of five of the subindexes. Orders account for 30% of the total; production - 25%; employment - 20%; deliveries - 15%; inventories - 10%. Prices, export orders, and import orders are not part of the total index.
Breakevens in Theory and Practice
Though 50% is the breakeven mark in theory, different readings have proved to be breakeven in practice. For new orders, 50.3% is the level consistent with breakeven readings in factory orders. For production, 49.4% has been the breakeven mark in theory and practice. For employment, 47.5% has been consistent with a steady level of manufacturing employment. For inventories, 41.3% has been consistent with steady business inventory readings. And finally, the 42.7% mark on the total index marks the point below which the overall economy is believed to be in recession. Between 42.7-50%, the manufacturing sector may be in decline, but the total economy is only seeing slower growth.
No Services
This observation highlights the important element which is missing from the ISM index - the service sector. With the manufacturing sector making up an ever-shrinking percentage of the total economy - the ISM might seem to be an indicator in decline. Not so, however - the manufacturing sector, while shrinking in relative terms, still tends to lead the total economy into and out of recessions. The ISM therefore remains a closely watched indicator despite its manufacturing focus.
A Proven Performer
The ISM's leading quality has been proven over time. Its bottom during a recession has preceded the turning point for the business cycle by an average of four months, and its worst performance in leading the turning point was on two occasions when the ISM trough occurred in the same month as the business cycle trough. The ISM index is released on the first business day of each at 10:00 ET, with data for the prior calendar month.
|
| 23/05/2013 | 07:28 | | | Indicele PMI pentru Sectorul Manufacturier -nivel | 49.0 | 48.5 | 48.1 | May | |
Country: Germany - PMI Manufacturing Index
Definition
Purchasing Managers' Manufacturing Index (PMIs) is based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies which provide an advance indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking changes in variables such as output, new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across the manufacturing sectors.
Why Investors Care?
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the Markit PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
The Markit PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major Source
of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.
Source
Markit Economics
Frequency
Monthly |
| 23/05/2013 | 07:58 | | | Indicele PMI pentru Sectorul Manufacturier -nivel | 47.8 | 47.0 | 46.7 | May | |
Country: EMU - PMI Manufacturing Index
Definition
Purchasing Managers' Manufacturing Index (PMIs) is based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies which provide an advance indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking changes in variables such as output, new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across the manufacturing sectors.
Why Investors Care?
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the Markit PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
The Markit PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major Source
of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.
Source
Markit Economics
Frequency
Monthly |
| 23/05/2013 | 08:00 | | | Vanzarile pe domeniul de Retail – l/l | -0.3% | | -0.2% | Mar | |
Country: Italy - Retail Sales
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods.
Why Investors Care?
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 23/05/2013 | 08:00 | | | Vanzarile pe domeniul de Retail – a/a | -3.0% | | -4.8% | Mar | |
Country: Italy - Retail Sales
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods.
Why Investors Care?
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 23/05/2013 | 08:30 | | | Produsul Intern Brut (PIB) – t/t | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | Trim1 | |
Country: UK - GDP
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy.
Why Investors Care?
GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.
Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth. For example, if the UK reports that the consumer price index has risen more than the Bank of England's 2 percent inflation target, demand for sterling could decline. Similarly, when the Bank of England lowers interest rates, the pound sterling weakens. (Currency traders also watch the interest rate spread between countries.)
Frequency
Quarterly |
| 23/05/2013 | 08:30 | | | Produsul Intern Brut (PIB) – a/a | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | Trim1 | |
Country: UK - GDP
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy.
Why Investors Care?
GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.
Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth. For example, if the UK reports that the consumer price index has risen more than the Bank of England's 2 percent inflation target, demand for sterling could decline. Similarly, when the Bank of England lowers interest rates, the pound sterling weakens. (Currency traders also watch the interest rate spread between countries.)
Frequency
Quarterly |
| 23/05/2013 | 12:30 | | | Cererile Preliminare de Somaj - nivel | 340K | 345K | 360K | Saptamana | |
Country: US - Jobless Claims
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.
Why Investors Care?
Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
Source
Employment and Training Administration, U.S. Department of Labor.
Availability
Thursdays.
Coverage
Week-ending Saturday before the release.
Revisions
Yes.
Frequency
Weekly |
| 23/05/2013 | 12:30 | | | Cererile Preliminare de Somaj – Media ultimelor 4 saptamani - nivel | 339.50K | | 339.25K | Saptamana | |
Country: US - Jobless Claims
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.
Why Investors Care?
Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
Source
Employment and Training Administration, U.S. Department of Labor.
Availability
Thursdays.
Coverage
Week-ending Saturday before the release.
Revisions
Yes.
Frequency
Weekly |
| 23/05/2013 | 12:58 | | | Indicele PMI pentru Sectorul Manufacturier -nivel | 51.9 | 51.8 | 52.1 | May | |
Country: US - PMI Manufacturing Index
Definition
Purchasing Managers' Manufacturing Index (PMIs) is based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies which provide an advance indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking changes in variables such as output, new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across the manufacturing sectors.
Why Investors Care?
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the Markit PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
The Markit PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major Source
of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.
Source
Markit Economics
Frequency
Monthly |
| 23/05/2013 | 13:00 | | | FHFA Indicele Pretului Caselor (IPC) – l/l | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | Mar | |
Country: US - FHFA House Price Index
Definition
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) covers single-family housing, using data provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The House Price Index is derived from transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. In contrast to other house price indexes, the sample is limited by the ceiling amount for conforming loans purchased by these government-sponsored enterprises (GSE). The loan limit in 2007 was $417,000. The limit was raised temporarily in February 2008 to as much as $729,750 in high cost areas of the country. The loan limit for 2009 was $417,000 for one-unit homes in most areas, but could be up to $625,500 in certain high cost areas in the continental United States. Mortgages insured by the FHA, VA, or other federal entities are excluded because they are not conventionalloans. The FHFA House Price Index is a repeat transactions measure. It compares prices or appraised values for similar houses. But markets focus on the reports purchase-only index.
Why Investors Care?
Home values affect much in the economy especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can damp housing starts. Changes in home values play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health. During the first half of this decade sharply rising home prices boosted how much home equity households held. In turn, this increased consumersability to spend, based on wealth effects and from being able to draw upon expanding home equity lines of credit.
With the onset of the credit crunch in mid-2007, weakness in home prices has had the reverse impact on the economy. New housing construction has been impaired and consumers have not been able to draw on home equity lines of credit as in recent years. But an additional problem for consumers is that a decline in home values reduces the ability of a home owner to refinance. During 2007, 2008, and into 2009 this became a major problem for subprime mortgage borrowers as adjustable rate mortgages reached the end of the low, teaser ratephase and ratcheted upward. Many subprime borrowers had bet on higher home values to lead to refinancing into an affordable fixed rate mortgage but with home equity values down, some lenders balked at refinancing subprime borrowers.
Many economists believe that the U.S. economy and especially the depressed housing sector will not recover until home prices firm back up. This makes watching home prices all the more important for the investor.
Source
Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
Revisions
Yes
Availability
About the 22nd to 25th of month
Frequency
Monthly |
| 23/05/2013 | 13:00 | | | FHFA Indicele Pretului Caselor (IPC) | 7.2% | | 7.1% | Mar | |
Country: US - FHFA House Price Index
Definition
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) covers single-family housing, using data provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The House Price Index is derived from transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. In contrast to other house price indexes, the sample is limited by the ceiling amount for conforming loans purchased by these government-sponsored enterprises (GSE). The loan limit in 2007 was $417,000. The limit was raised temporarily in February 2008 to as much as $729,750 in high cost areas of the country. The loan limit for 2009 was $417,000 for one-unit homes in most areas, but could be up to $625,500 in certain high cost areas in the continental United States. Mortgages insured by the FHA, VA, or other federal entities are excluded because they are not conventionalloans. The FHFA House Price Index is a repeat transactions measure. It compares prices or appraised values for similar houses. But markets focus on the reports purchase-only index.
Why Investors Care?
Home values affect much in the economy especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can damp housing starts. Changes in home values play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health. During the first half of this decade sharply rising home prices boosted how much home equity households held. In turn, this increased consumersability to spend, based on wealth effects and from being able to draw upon expanding home equity lines of credit.
With the onset of the credit crunch in mid-2007, weakness in home prices has had the reverse impact on the economy. New housing construction has been impaired and consumers have not been able to draw on home equity lines of credit as in recent years. But an additional problem for consumers is that a decline in home values reduces the ability of a home owner to refinance. During 2007, 2008, and into 2009 this became a major problem for subprime mortgage borrowers as adjustable rate mortgages reached the end of the low, teaser ratephase and ratcheted upward. Many subprime borrowers had bet on higher home values to lead to refinancing into an affordable fixed rate mortgage but with home equity values down, some lenders balked at refinancing subprime borrowers.
Many economists believe that the U.S. economy and especially the depressed housing sector will not recover until home prices firm back up. This makes watching home prices all the more important for the investor.
Source
Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
Revisions
Yes
Availability
About the 22nd to 25th of month
Frequency
Monthly |
| 23/05/2013 | 14:00 | | | Vanzarile de Case Noi – nivel saar | 454K | 425K | 417K | Apr | |
Country: US - New Home Sales
Definition
New home sales measure the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. The level of new home sales indicates housing market trends and, in turn, economic momentum and consumer purchases of furniture and appliances.
Why Investors Care?
This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as new home sales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio. Each time the construction of a new home begins, it translates to more construction jobs, and income which will be pumped back into the economy. Once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items new home buyers might purchase. The economic "ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, new home sales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the new home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
Frequency
Monthly.
Source
U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Availability
Near the end of the month.
Coverage
Data are for the previous month. Data for June are released in July.
Revisions
Yes. |
| 23/05/2013 | 14:00 | | | Increderea Consumatorilor | -21.9 | -21.8 | -22.3 | May | |
Country: EMU
Source: The Conference Board.
Raw Data Available At: http://www.tcb-indicators.org/
Release Time: 10:00 ET on the last Tuesday of the month (data for current month).
This survey measures the level of confidence individual households have in the performance of the economy now and in the future. It is a leading indicator of future spending and the business cycle. 5000 consumers in the nine census divisions across the country are surveyed each month. The level of consumer confidence is directly correlated to the strength of consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy. It also correlates closely with joblessness, inflation, and real incomes. The report can occasionally be helpful in predicting sudden shifts in consumption patterns, though most small changes in the index are just noise. Only index changes of at least five points should be considered significant. The index consists of two subindexes - consumers' appraisal of current conditions and their expectations for the future. Expectations make up 60% of the total index, with current conditions accounting for the other 40%. The expectations index is typically seen as having better leading indicator qualities than the current conditions index. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. Note, changes in consumer confidence and retail sales do not move in tandem month by month. If the economy experiences a long-term expansion, buying intentions may decline even while the jobless rate declines because of the satisfaction of pent-up demand. Conversely, if inflation begins to accelerate, spending plans may increase for the short-term as consumers buy now to avoid having to pay higher prices later. Regional differences in consumer confidence are an indication of differing business cycles across the nation. This has implications for spending on durable goods and, more importantly, for residential real estate markets. Financial markets interpret rising consumer confidence as a precursor to higher consumer spending. Higher consumer spending could in turn spark inflation. Look for a change in the direction of the six month moving average of the index. Consumers do not usually have the necessary information to accurately assess income and job growth six months in the future. The report provides information on planned spending, which does not necessarily turn into actual spending, although it is unlikely that increasing consumer confidence would be followed by a decline in spending. The Consumer Confidence survey is not useful for any type of forecasting.
|
| 23/05/2013 | 14:30 | | | EIA Stocurile de Gaz – s/s | 89bcf | | 99bcf | Saptamana | |
Country: US - EIA Natural Gas Report
Definition
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on natural gas stocks in underground storage for the U.S., and three regions of the country. The level of inventories helps determine prices for natural gas products.
Why Investors Care?
Natural gas product prices are determined by supply and demand - just like any other good and service. During periods of strong economic growth, one would expect demand to be robust. If inventories are low, this will lead to increases in natural gas. If inventories are high and rising in a period of strong demand, prices may not need to increase at all, or as much. During a period of sluggish economic activity, demand for natural gas may not be as strong. If inventories are rising, this may push down oil prices.
Source
Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy.
Availability
Thursdays, except on federal holidays.
Coverage
Each weekly report has data for the week ending the previous Friday.
Revisions
No.
Frequency
Weekly |
| 23/05/2013 | 19:30 | | | Discurs al Presedintelui Bancii Centrale Europene | | | | | |
| Country: EMU |
| 23/05/2013 | 20:30 | | | Banca de Rezerva Federala Total Active – s/s | $44.4B | | $29.7B | Saptamana | |
Country: US - Fed Balance Sheet
Definition
The Fed's balance sheet is a report showing factors supplying reserves into the banking system and factors absorbing (using) reserve funds. Essentially, the balance sheet shows the various Fed programs for injecting liquidity into the economy and how much the Fed has used each for adding or withdrawing reserves. This report is called Factors Affecting Reserve Balances - or the "H.4.1" report using Fed jargon.
Why Investors Care?
This report typically has not garnered much market attention since Fed policy has been tracked through changes in the fed funds target rate. But with the Fed cutting the fed funds rate to essentially zero in December 2008, markets began to look for other ways (other than rate changes) for viewing the progress and impact of quantitative easing - and tracking the Fed's balance sheet became one of numerous methods of seeing how the Fed's further injections of liquidity were filtering through the economy. Also, the detail of the balance sheet can indicate whether institutions using specific programs are improving as suggested by less reliance on Fed loans.
Importance
This indicator has had low importance during the Fed's publicly announced interest rate targeting period but has gained a little more stature during quantitative easing since the fed funds rate has been at essentially zero.
Interpretation
Markets focus on weekly changes for factors supplying reserves with the key measure being Reserve Bank credit. Reserve Bank credit reflects the key factors supplying reserves in the banking system and currently includes such diverse items as U.S. Treasury securities, federal agency debt securities (such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), mortgage-backed securities, repurchase agreements, term auction credit, primary credit (discount window), secondary credit, seasonal credit, primary dealer credit, asset-backed commercial paper money market, credit extended to AIG, Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, net portfolio holdings of Commercial Paper Funding Facility LLC, net portfolio holdings of LLCs funded through the Money Market Investor Funding Facility, net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC, Maiden Lane II LLC & Maiden Lane III LLC, float, central bank liquidity swaps, and "other" Federal Reserve asset. Reserve Bank credit is the same as total factors supplying reserve funds other than exclusions for gold stock, special drawing rights, and Treasury currency outstanding.
Changes in Reserve Bank credit give a broad picture of reserve injections. But markets also track the detail of the various programs - such as holdings of U.S. Treasury securities or federal agency debt securities or primary credit (discount window) to see if certain sectors are having less need for Fed help or if the Fed is getting more involved.
Source
Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Availability
Thursdays.
Coverage
Data are for daily averages for the week ending on Wednesday and also just for the day of Wednesday of the week of the release (week ending April 22 and day of April 22, 2009 released April 23, 2009).
Revisions
No.
Frequency
Weekly |
| 23/05/2013 | 20:30 | | | Banca de Rezerva Federala Credite – s/s | $33.4B | | $26.8B | Saptamana | |
Country: US - Fed Balance Sheet
Definition
The Fed's balance sheet is a report showing factors supplying reserves into the banking system and factors absorbing (using) reserve funds. Essentially, the balance sheet shows the various Fed programs for injecting liquidity into the economy and how much the Fed has used each for adding or withdrawing reserves. This report is called Factors Affecting Reserve Balances - or the "H.4.1" report using Fed jargon.
Why Investors Care?
This report typically has not garnered much market attention since Fed policy has been tracked through changes in the fed funds target rate. But with the Fed cutting the fed funds rate to essentially zero in December 2008, markets began to look for other ways (other than rate changes) for viewing the progress and impact of quantitative easing - and tracking the Fed's balance sheet became one of numerous methods of seeing how the Fed's further injections of liquidity were filtering through the economy. Also, the detail of the balance sheet can indicate whether institutions using specific programs are improving as suggested by less reliance on Fed loans.
Importance
This indicator has had low importance during the Fed's publicly announced interest rate targeting period but has gained a little more stature during quantitative easing since the fed funds rate has been at essentially zero.
Interpretation
Markets focus on weekly changes for factors supplying reserves with the key measure being Reserve Bank credit. Reserve Bank credit reflects the key factors supplying reserves in the banking system and currently includes such diverse items as U.S. Treasury securities, federal agency debt securities (such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), mortgage-backed securities, repurchase agreements, term auction credit, primary credit (discount window), secondary credit, seasonal credit, primary dealer credit, asset-backed commercial paper money market, credit extended to AIG, Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, net portfolio holdings of Commercial Paper Funding Facility LLC, net portfolio holdings of LLCs funded through the Money Market Investor Funding Facility, net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC, Maiden Lane II LLC & Maiden Lane III LLC, float, central bank liquidity swaps, and "other" Federal Reserve asset. Reserve Bank credit is the same as total factors supplying reserve funds other than exclusions for gold stock, special drawing rights, and Treasury currency outstanding.
Changes in Reserve Bank credit give a broad picture of reserve injections. But markets also track the detail of the various programs - such as holdings of U.S. Treasury securities or federal agency debt securities or primary credit (discount window) to see if certain sectors are having less need for Fed help or if the Fed is getting more involved.
Source
Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Availability
Thursdays.
Coverage
Data are for daily averages for the week ending on Wednesday and also just for the day of Wednesday of the week of the release (week ending April 22 and day of April 22, 2009 released April 23, 2009).
Revisions
No.
Frequency
Weekly |
| 23/05/2013 | 20:30 | | | Masa Monetara M2 – s/s | $12.7B | | $5.2B | Saptamana | |
Country: US - Money Supply
Definition
The monetary aggregates are alternative measures of the money supply by degree of liquidity. Changes in the monetary aggregates indicate the thrust of monetary policy as well as the outlook for economic activity and inflationary pressures.
Why Investors Care?
In recent years, the various money supply measures have not mattered to most investors - though that has changed somewhat recently. The monetary aggregates (known individually as M1, M2, and M3) used to be all the rage when the Fed did not publicly announce it interest rate target because the data revealed the Fed's (tight or loose) hold on credit conditions in the economy. The Fed in the past issued target ranges for money supply growth at its first report to Congress each year. In the past, if actual growth moved outside those ranges it often was a prelude to an interest rate move from the Fed. Today, the Fed no longer sets money supply targets due to a variety of changes in the financial system and the way the Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy. Monetary policy is understood more clearly by the level of the federal funds rate.
But with the Fed cutting the fed funds rate to essentially zero in December 2008, markets began to look for other ways (other than rate changes) for viewing the progress and impact of quantitative easing - and tracking the money supply became one of numerous methods of seeing how the Fed's further injections of liquidity were filtering through the economy.
Importance
This indicator has had low importance during the Fed's publicly announced interest rate targeting period but has gained a little more stature during quantitative easing since the fed funds rate has been at essentially zero.
Interpretation
Markets focus on measures of money supply that are relatively liquid - M1 and M2. These are basically cash, checking deposits, and savings types of accounts. However, both measures are somewhat volatile on a weekly basis and monthly data give a better picture of how much liquidity the Fed has injected into financial markets has been converted into readily spendable forms.
Source
Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Availability
Thursdays.
Coverage
Data are for week ending on Monday two calendar weeks prior to release (April 6, 2009 data released April 16, 2009).
Revisions
Yes.
Frequency
Weekly |
| 23/05/2013 | 22:45 | | | Balanta Internationala de Tranzactionare - nivel | NZ$157M | NZ$482M | NZ$718M | Apr | |
Country: NewZealand - Merchandise trade
Definition
The international trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. Imports may act as a drag on domestic growth and they may also increase competitive pressures on domestic producers. Exports boost domestic production. Trade balance values are calculated by deducting imports (cif) from exports (fob).
Why Investors Care?
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the NZ dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods in New Zealand. Exports show the demand for NZ goods in countries overseas. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade deficit run by New Zealand since this trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 23/05/2013 | 22:45 | | | Exporturile – l/l | -10.4% | | 13.3% | Apr | |
Country: NewZealand - Merchandise trade
Definition
The international trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. Imports may act as a drag on domestic growth and they may also increase competitive pressures on domestic producers. Exports boost domestic production. Trade balance values are calculated by deducting imports (cif) from exports (fob).
Why Investors Care?
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the NZ dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods in New Zealand. Exports show the demand for NZ goods in countries overseas. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade deficit run by New Zealand since this trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 23/05/2013 | 22:45 | | | Exporturile – a/a | 2.1% | | 5.0% | Apr | |
Country: NewZealand - Merchandise trade
Definition
The international trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. Imports may act as a drag on domestic growth and they may also increase competitive pressures on domestic producers. Exports boost domestic production. Trade balance values are calculated by deducting imports (cif) from exports (fob).
Why Investors Care?
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the NZ dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods in New Zealand. Exports show the demand for NZ goods in countries overseas. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade deficit run by New Zealand since this trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 23/05/2013 | 22:45 | | | Importurile – l/l | 3.1% | | 6.9% | Apr | |
Country: NewZealand - Merchandise trade
Definition
The international trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. Imports may act as a drag on domestic growth and they may also increase competitive pressures on domestic producers. Exports boost domestic production. Trade balance values are calculated by deducting imports (cif) from exports (fob).
Why Investors Care?
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the NZ dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods in New Zealand. Exports show the demand for NZ goods in countries overseas. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade deficit run by New Zealand since this trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 23/05/2013 | 22:45 | | | Importurile – a/a | 7.4% | | -7.9% | Apr | |
Country: NewZealand - Merchandise trade
Definition
The international trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. Imports may act as a drag on domestic growth and they may also increase competitive pressures on domestic producers. Exports boost domestic production. Trade balance values are calculated by deducting imports (cif) from exports (fob).
Why Investors Care?
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the NZ dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods in New Zealand. Exports show the demand for NZ goods in countries overseas. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade deficit run by New Zealand since this trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 24/05/2013 | 06:00 | | | Produsul Intern Brut (PIB) – t/t | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.6% | Trim1 | |
Country: Germany - GDP
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy.
Why Investors Care?
GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.
Frequency
Quarterly |
| 24/05/2013 | 06:00 | | | Produsul Intern Brut (PIB) – a/a | -0.2% | -0.2% | 0.4% | Trim1 | |
Country: Germany - GDP
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy.
Why Investors Care?
GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.
Frequency
Quarterly |
| 24/05/2013 | 06:45 | | | Indicele Mediului de Afaceri - nivel | 92 | 89.0 | 88 | May | |
Country: France - Business Climate Indicator
Definition
The indicator is a measure of the prevailing sentiment among French business leaders.
Why Investors Care?
If you are looking for clues on French business sentiment, this survey would be a good starting point. The indicator is based on a survey that asks business leaders about their expectations for new orders and their overall impressions of the economy. The results are a diffusion index that reflects the difference between positive and negative responses as a percentage of the total number of answers. It uses 100 as the dividing line between positive and negative sentiment.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 24/05/2013 | 08:00 | | | Sondaj IFO – Conditii Curente | 105.7 | 104.6 | 104.4 | May | |
Country: Germany - Ifo Survey
Definition
Published by the Ifo Institute, this west German business sentiment index is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their appraisals of the business situation and their short-term planning.
Why Investors Care?
The Ifo Sentiment Survey is published by the Ifo Institute. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their appraisals of the business situation, current and future. This German business sentiment index is closely watched as an early harbinger of current conditions and business expectations. It is generally published during the last week of the month for the current month with more detailed information available about a week later. It is widely followed in the financial markets as good indicator of business sentiment.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 24/05/2013 | 08:00 | | | Sondaj IFO – Sentimentul Economic | 110.0 | 107.4 | 107.2 | May | |
Country: Germany - Ifo Survey
Definition
Published by the Ifo Institute, this west German business sentiment index is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their appraisals of the business situation and their short-term planning.
Why Investors Care?
The Ifo Sentiment Survey is published by the Ifo Institute. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their appraisals of the business situation, current and future. This German business sentiment index is closely watched as an early harbinger of current conditions and business expectations. It is generally published during the last week of the month for the current month with more detailed information available about a week later. It is widely followed in the financial markets as good indicator of business sentiment.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 24/05/2013 | 08:00 | | | Sondaj IFO – Asteptarile Mediului de Afaceri | 101.6 | 102.0 | 101.6 | May | |
Country: Germany - Ifo Survey
Definition
Published by the Ifo Institute, this west German business sentiment index is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their appraisals of the business situation and their short-term planning.
Why Investors Care?
The Ifo Sentiment Survey is published by the Ifo Institute. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their appraisals of the business situation, current and future. This German business sentiment index is closely watched as an early harbinger of current conditions and business expectations. It is generally published during the last week of the month for the current month with more detailed information available about a week later. It is widely followed in the financial markets as good indicator of business sentiment.
Frequency
Monthly |
| 24/05/2013 | 08:00 | | | Increderea Consumatorilor ISAE -nivel | 85.9 | | 86.3 | May | |
| Country: Italy |
| 24/05/2013 | 12:30 | | | Ordine Noi pentru Bunuri de Folosinta Indelungata – l/l | 3.3% | 1.1% | -5.7% | Apr | |
Country: US - Durable Goods Orders
Definition
Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.
Durable goods orders are available nationally by both industry and market categories. A new order is accompanied by a legally binding agreement to purchase for immediate or future delivery. Advance durable goods orders no longer include data on semiconductors since semiconductor manufacturers stopped releasing this information to the Census Bureau.
The advance durable goods report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. Shipments represent deliveries made, valued at net selling price after discounts and allowances, excluding freight charges and excise taxes. Semiconductor data are available for shipments and inventories. Unfilled orders are those received but not yet delivered.
In 2001, the Census Bureau shifted from the standard industrial classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This caused some realignment of major industry classifications. Given the significant revisions incurred, the historical data now begin in 1992.
Why Investors Care?
Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. Rising equity prices thrive on growing corporate profits - which in turn stem from healthy economic growth. Healthy economic growth is not necessarily a negative for the bond market, but bond investors are highly sensitive to inflationary pressures. When the economy is growing too quickly and can't meet demand, it can pave the road for inflation. By tracking economic data such durable goods orders, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.
Orders for durable goods show how busy factories will be in the months to come, as manufacturers work to fill those orders. The data not only provide insight to demand for items such as refrigerators and cars, but also business investment such as industrial machinery, electrical machinery and computers. If companies commit to spending more on equipment and other capital, they are obviously experiencing sustainable growth in their business. Increased expenditures on investment goods set the stage for greater productive capacity in the country and reduce the prospects for inflation.
Durable goods orders tell investors what to expect from the manufacturing sector, a major component of the economy, and therefore a major influence on their investments.
Importance
Durable goods orders are a leading indicator of industrial production and capital spending.
Interpretation
The bond market will rally (fall) when durable goods orders are weak (strong). A moderately healthy report for new orders bodes well for corporate profits and the stock market, however. Durable goods orders are one of the most volatile economic indicators reported in the month and this series can be revised by significant amounts from one month to the next. More than any other indicator, it is imperative to follow either three-month moving averages of the monthly levels or year-over-year percent changes. These adjustments smooth out the monthly variability and provide a clearer picture of the trend in the manufacturing sector.
Whenever economic indicators are particularly volatile, it becomes customary to exclude the more variable components from the total. For instance, market players exclude defense orders and transportation orders from durable goods because these fluctuate more than the overall total. Incidentally, aircraft orders are the guilty culprit, which are included in both of these categories. Airplanes are ordered in quantity, not one at a time. Analysts exclude the categories containing aircraft orders because they obscure the underlying trend, not because the aircraft industry is unimportant.
Economists closely watch nondefense capital goods orders as a leading indicator of capital spending. Aircraft can be excluded to increase the stability of the series.
Durable goods orders are measured in nominal dollars. Economic performance depends on real, rather than nominal growth rates. One can compare the trend growth rate in durable goods orders with that of the PPI for finished goods to assess the growth rate in real orders.
Frequency
Monthly.
Source
Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce.
Availability
Usually during the fourth week of the month.
Coverage
Data are for the previous month. Data for June are released in July.
Revisions
Yes. |
| 24/05/2013 | 12:30 | | | Ordine Noi pentru Bunuri de Folosinta Indelungata – a/a | 2.4% | | -1.9% | Apr | |
Country: US - Durable Goods Orders
Definition
Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.
Durable goods orders are available nationally by both industry and market categories. A new order is accompanied by a legally binding agreement to purchase for immediate or future delivery. Advance durable goods orders no longer include data on semiconductors since semiconductor manufacturers stopped releasing this information to the Census Bureau.
The advance durable goods report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. Shipments represent deliveries made, valued at net selling price after discounts and allowances, excluding freight charges and excise taxes. Semiconductor data are available for shipments and inventories. Unfilled orders are those received but not yet delivered.
In 2001, the Census Bureau shifted from the standard industrial classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This caused some realignment of major industry classifications. Given the significant revisions incurred, the historical data now begin in 1992.
Why Investors Care?
Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. Rising equity prices thrive on growing corporate profits - which in turn stem from healthy economic growth. Healthy economic growth is not necessarily a negative for the bond market, but bond investors are highly sensitive to inflationary pressures. When the economy is growing too quickly and can't meet demand, it can pave the road for inflation. By tracking economic data such durable goods orders, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.
Orders for durable goods show how busy factories will be in the months to come, as manufacturers work to fill those orders. The data not only provide insight to demand for items such as refrigerators and cars, but also business investment such as industrial machinery, electrical machinery and computers. If companies commit to spending more on equipment and other capital, they are obviously experiencing sustainable growth in their business. Increased expenditures on investment goods set the stage for greater productive capacity in the country and reduce the prospects for inflation.
Durable goods orders tell investors what to expect from the manufacturing sector, a major component of the economy, and therefore a major influence on their investments.
Importance
Durable goods orders are a leading indicator of industrial production and capital spending.
Interpretation
The bond market will rally (fall) when durable goods orders are weak (strong). A moderately healthy report for new orders bodes well for corporate profits and the stock market, however. Durable goods orders are one of the most volatile economic indicators reported in the month and this series can be revised by significant amounts from one month to the next. More than any other indicator, it is imperative to follow either three-month moving averages of the monthly levels or year-over-year percent changes. These adjustments smooth out the monthly variability and provide a clearer picture of the trend in the manufacturing sector.
Whenever economic indicators are particularly volatile, it becomes customary to exclude the more variable components from the total. For instance, market players exclude defense orders and transportation orders from durable goods because these fluctuate more than the overall total. Incidentally, aircraft orders are the guilty culprit, which are included in both of these categories. Airplanes are ordered in quantity, not one at a time. Analysts exclude the categories containing aircraft orders because they obscure the underlying trend, not because the aircraft industry is unimportant.
Economists closely watch nondefense capital goods orders as a leading indicator of capital spending. Aircraft can be excluded to increase the stability of the series.
Durable goods orders are measured in nominal dollars. Economic performance depends on real, rather than nominal growth rates. One can compare the trend growth rate in durable goods orders with that of the PPI for finished goods to assess the growth rate in real orders.
Frequency
Monthly.
Source
Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce.
Availability
Usually during the fourth week of the month.
Coverage
Data are for the previous month. Data for June are released in July.
Revisions
Yes. |
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Econoday, Inc. has attempted to verify the accuracy of the information contained in this calendar; however, any aspect of such information may change without notice. Econoday, Inc. does not provide investment advice, and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Copyright 2011 Econoday, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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